Gold Moves Cautiously; The Fed is the Key Driver

Fundamentally, gold remains under pressure today as the market has almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Fed. The probability stands at around 92%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 5% and the dollar holds steady around two-week highs. The combination of high yields and a strong dollar exerts significant pressure on gold, a non-yielding asset.

However, a rebound remains possible if the Fed raises rates but offers guidance that is more dovish than expected—particularly regarding comments from Kevin Warsh on future hikes. Elevated oil prices due to Saudi supply disruptions keep inflation risks high, but should oil prices and yields begin to decline, the pressure on gold could ease. Consequently, the fundamental bias for gold remains bearish to neutral ahead of the FOMC decision.(mrv)

Gold price at the time of this analysis: $4,291

- Buy if the price moves to $4,296

- Sell if the price moves to $4,286

Resistance 2: $4,318

Resistance 1: $4,308

Support 1: $4,272

Support 2: $4,262

Note: This article is analytical in nature and does not constitute definitive advice. Please consider the impact of fundamental and technical developments on trading before making any investment decisions.

Source: Newsmaker.id