News Maker 23 - Analysis

Gold prices remained under pressure on Friday (September 11) after falling nearly 2% in the previous session. Spot gold traded around US$4,317 per troy ounce during the Asian session. The main pressure came from the US 10-year Treasury yield, which moved close to the 5% level, while the US Dollar Index remained firm around 99.06. Brent crude oil also climbed toward US$110 per barrel, raising inflation concerns and increasing market expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates next week.

The main focus today is the release of US CPI data. Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.4% month-on-month, while Core CPI is forecast to increase 0.2%. If Core CPI comes in at 0.2% or lower, inflation concerns could ease, potentially pushing Treasury yields and the US dollar lower and opening room for a rebound in gold. However, a Core CPI reading of 0.4% or higher could strengthen expectations for another Fed rate hike and put additional pressure on gold. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to provide some safe-haven support, but for now, that impact remains weaker than the pressure from high yields and inflation concerns.

From a technical perspective, gold remains bearish as long as prices stay below the US$4,400 area. The break below the previous low around US$4,323 suggests that selling pressure remains strong. The US$4,300 level is the nearest psychological support to watch. A clear break below this level could extend the decline toward the US$4,250 area.

Meanwhile, initial resistance is seen around US$4,350–US$4,360, followed by US$4,400–US$4,420. Any rebound toward these levels may still be considered a technical recovery as long as gold fails to hold above US$4,400. If US CPI comes in softer than expected and gold manages to break back above US$4,400–US$4,420, the recovery could extend toward US$4,450. On the other hand, failure to hold above US$4,300 could allow the bearish trend to regain control.(mrv)

Source : Newsmaker.id