Brent Nears $100, Can the Rally Go Even Higher?

Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday, September 9, with Brent trading around $99.4 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) near $94.3. The fourth consecutive session of gains came as escalating tensions in the Middle East intensified concerns over supply disruptions, particularly from the Gulf region and the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

From a fundamental perspective, bullish sentiment strengthened after the United States struck Iranian oil tankers, while Tehran retaliated by targeting U.S. military assets in Jordan. Attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces on Saudi cities and energy infrastructure also increased fears that the conflict could spread further to key production and export facilities. These developments have pushed investors to price a larger geopolitical risk premium into crude markets.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the most important fundamental driver. Before the conflict, the waterway handled roughly one-fifth of global oil flows, but current volumes are increasingly difficult to assess as more tankers operate with tracking systems switched off. Uncertainty over how much crude is still moving through the strait is likely to keep the risk premium elevated as long as hostilities persist.

However, several factors continue to limit the upside. Oil flows through Hormuz have not completely stopped, Gulf producers are using alternative export routes, and non-OPEC production remains supportive. Large inventories in China are also helping cushion the market from tighter supply. These factors help explain why Brent has struggled to move decisively above $100 despite the sharp rise in geopolitical risks.

From a technical perspective, oil remains in a bullish trend. WTI technical indicators continue to point to strong buying momentum, with most moving averages and momentum indicators still favoring further gains. The Relative Strength Index remains supportive, while the MACD continues to signal buying strength. However, some short-term oscillators are approaching overbought territory, suggesting the possibility of a temporary pullback after the recent rally.

For WTI, the $94.20-$94.00 area is the first key support zone to watch. If that area holds, prices may retest $94.50-$94.80 before opening the way toward $95. For Brent, immediate support is seen around $99.10-$98.90, while resistance is located near $99.60, $99.90 and the key psychological level of $100. A sustained break above $100 could reinforce bullish momentum and open the door to further gains.

Still, traders should remain alert to profit-taking as prices approach major psychological resistance. If Brent fails to break above $100 and geopolitical tensions begin to ease, a correction toward $99 or even $98 could emerge. Conversely, fresh attacks on tankers, energy facilities, or a deeper disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could provide the catalyst needed to push crude decisively above the $100 mark.

Oil fundamentals and technicals remain broadly bullish today. Middle East supply risks continue to provide the main upside driver, while the technical structure shows that buyers are still in control. However, with Brent already close to $100, volatility and profit-taking risks are also rising. As long as Brent holds above the $98.90-$99.00 area and WTI stays above roughly $94, the bullish bias remains intact.