Oil Nears $100 as Hormuz Risks Strengthen Bullish Momentum

Oil prices moved higher on Monday (7/9), with Brent trading around $97 per barrel and WTI near $92. The main driver remains escalating tensions between the United States and Iran following attacks involving ships and tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping activity through the key energy route has also declined, increasing market concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies.

From a fundamental perspective, sentiment remains bullish as geopolitical risks show little sign of easing. Iran has also announced plans for a restricted zone around Hormuz, while oil flows through the region remain under pressure. At the same time, OPEC+ has decided to keep its October production policy unchanged, meaning there is no significant additional supply available to immediately offset the current price surge. These factors are keeping geopolitical risk premiums elevated and Brent close to the psychological $100 level.

However, the rally still faces some limiting factors. Higher oil prices could begin to weaken demand, particularly from major importing countries such as China. In addition, any signs of improved shipping conditions through Hormuz or progress in US-Iran diplomatic efforts could quickly reduce the geopolitical risk premium and trigger a sharp correction.

From a technical perspective, Brent still maintains a bullish structure. The price has already moved above the $94–95 area, which now acts as an important support zone. As long as Brent holds above this region, upside momentum remains intact, with the psychological $100 level as the nearest major resistance, followed by approximately $102 if buying pressure continues.

On the downside, a break below $94 could open the door for a correction toward the $90–91 area. A deeper decline could then bring the $85–86 region back into focus. With volatility still heavily influenced by geopolitical headlines, price swings may remain sharp even if broader market liquidity is relatively thin.

Overall, oil retains a bullish bias today, with developments around the Strait of Hormuz remaining the key catalyst. A sustained break above $100 could encourage further gains toward $102, while any meaningful diplomatic progress or normalization in tanker traffic could quickly shift sentiment and trigger profit-taking.(mrv)

Source : Newsmaker.id