Gold Remains Under Pressure, 4,300 Becomes Key Level

Gold prices remained under pressure on Wednesday (Sept. 2), with spot gold trading around $4,300–$4,310 per troy ounce after touching its lowest level in more than three weeks. Gold is heading toward a fourth consecutive session of losses as pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields, and shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations continues to dominate market sentiment.

From a fundamental perspective, the main pressure on gold comes from growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again in September. Markets are currently pricing in around a 67% probability of a rate hike, after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Michael Barr delivered hawkish signals. Barr said another rate increase may be necessary if inflation does not moderate sufficiently.

Tensions between the United States and Iran are also creating an unusual dynamic for gold. Geopolitical escalation would normally boost safe-haven demand, but this time rising oil prices are increasing inflation concerns. Higher energy costs could force the Fed to maintain tighter monetary policy for longer, pushing Treasury yields higher and adding pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold.

A stronger U.S. dollar is also limiting gold’s upside potential. A firmer dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while higher yields increase the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets compared with precious metals. As a result, despite elevated geopolitical risks, investors are currently focusing more on their implications for inflation and monetary policy than on traditional safe-haven flows.

From a technical perspective, gold continues to show a bearish bias. Short- and medium-term momentum remains weak, with the price trading below several key moving averages, while MACD remains in negative territory. Previous breaks below important technical levels have also triggered additional selling pressure.

However, the 14-period RSI is approaching oversold territory, suggesting that the market may be vulnerable to a technical rebound if sellers begin taking profits. This means that although the broader short-term structure remains bearish, gold may not continue falling in a straight line and could experience temporary recovery attempts.

For today’s trading, the $4,300–$4,302 area remains a crucial psychological and technical support zone. If this area fails to hold, selling pressure could push gold toward $4,288–$4,278, followed by around $4,264. A decisive break below these levels could reinforce the bearish structure and open the door to further downside.

On the upside, if gold manages to hold above $4,300 and stage a rebound, initial resistance is seen around $4,316–$4,326. A break above this zone could open room for a recovery toward $4,340–$4,354. However, as long as the price remains below these resistance levels, any upward move may still be viewed as a technical rebound rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.

Newsmaker Analysis: Gold’s bias remains bearish with the possibility of a technical rebound, as momentum indicators are approaching oversold conditions. The $4,300 area will be a key level in determining the next move. A convincing break below this zone could extend losses toward $4,288 and $4,264, while a successful hold may trigger a rebound toward $4,326–$4,340. Fundamentally, market attention is focused on the upcoming U.S. ADP Employment report, while Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will be an even more important catalyst. Strong labor data could reinforce rate-hike expectations and pressure gold further, while weaker figures may ease Treasury yields and give gold room to recover.(mrv)

Source : Newsmaker.id