Oil Prices Stable, Market Weighs Iran Waiver and US-Iran Peace Initiative
World oil prices were stable on Tuesday (June 23, 2026), after dropping more than 3% in the previous session due to initial progress in peace talks related to the Iran war. Brent crude traded around US$78 per barrel after recording its biggest drop in almost a week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered above US$74 per barrel. This movement indicates the market is beginning to hold back after previously aggressive oil selling due to hopes that supplies from the Persian Gulf could recover.
The main sentiment came from the United States' decision to issue a temporary 60-day license to allow some sales of Iranian oil and petroleum products. This policy is an important signal that the diplomatic process between Washington and Tehran is moving in a more concrete direction. For Iran, the permit is a breath of fresh air because it opens up revenue opportunities from energy exports, while for the global market, this policy raises expectations that oil supplies could increase in the coming weeks.
However, the market is not yet fully convinced that additional supply will immediately flood the market. Although both US and Iranian officials have cited progress in the first round of talks, several differences remain. US Vice President JD Vance stated that Iran has agreed to reinstate nuclear inspectors, but Tehran reportedly denies this claim. These differences have led market participants to believe that the road to a final agreement remains long and potentially fraught with tension.
Another focus is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil and gas shipments. Shipping activity through the waterway is beginning to show signs of recovery, including the entry of more energy tankers into the Persian Gulf region. Qatar is also said to have begun sending more empty LNG tankers through Hormuz, adding to signs that energy flows are slowly reopening. However, a full recovery still depends on the security of shipping lanes, the certainty of insurance coverage, and the willingness of shipping companies to resume normal operations.
Analysts believe the oil market is at risk of prematurely pricing in a supply surplus before it actually exists. Previously, the market was also premature in pricing in a deficit during the escalation of conflict, even though not all barrels had completely disappeared from the market. This makes oil prices vulnerable to excessive fluctuations, both when sentiment improves and when geopolitical risks re-escalate. In other words, the current stability of Brent and WTI does not mean the market is completely secure.
Going forward, the direction of oil prices will still be determined by three main factors: the continuation of the Iran nuclear negotiations, the status of the ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, and the safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz. If technical talks proceed smoothly and shipping flows continue to increase, oil prices could potentially remain depressed as the market anticipates additional supply. However, if negotiations stall again or the security of Hormuz is again compromised, oil could surge again as the risk of disruption to global energy supplies remains unresolved. (asd)*
Source: Newsmaker.id
