Fragile Ceasefire, Oil Risk Premium Rebounds
Oil prices surged on Thursday (April 9) after the market assessed that Iran still controls access to the Strait of Hormuz despite a two-week ceasefire with the US, causing the supply risk premium to rise again. May WTI rose more than 6% to US$100.27/barrel at 9:51 a.m. ET, while June Brent rose nearly 4% to US$98.26/barrel.
ADNOC CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber said the strait is not yet open to shipping because Iran continues to restrict access, and emphasized that ships must obtain Tehran's permission to pass. These comments add to concerns that the restoration of energy flows will not automatically occur, even if a ceasefire agreement is announced.
On the geopolitical front, the ceasefire is considered fragile due to differing interpretations. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused Washington of violating the agreement, citing three points of Iran's 10-point proposal: continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon, drone incursions into Iranian airspace, and the denial of uranium enrichment rights. US Vice President JD Vance called "ceasefires always messy," reaffirmed the US position that Iran should not enrich itself, and said Lebanon was not covered by the deal.
The combination of unregulated access to Hormuz and the unclear scope of the ceasefire has caused the market to re-price the risk of supply disruptions, potentially keeping oil prices volatile until there is concrete evidence of a return to shipping flows.
Source: Newsmaker.id
