Oil Rises, Brent Heads for Record Monthly Jump
Oil prices rose on Monday (March 30th), with Brent holding well above US$100 per barrel, as the market reassessed the risk of supply disruptions after the US-Israel and Iran conflict entered its fifth week. The rise was driven by regional security escalation, including the direct involvement of the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen.
The May Brent contract rose around 2%–3% and briefly traded in the US$115–US$116 per barrel range, while WTI hovered above US$100 per barrel. Month-on-month, Brent surged around 59% throughout March, putting it on track for its biggest monthly gain on record, according to a Reuters report.
Tensions escalated after Trump told the Financial Times that his “preferred” option in Iran was to “take its oil,” a statement that raised market concerns about infrastructure and energy route risks. Reuters also reported that Houthi attacks on Israel widened the conflict zone, strengthening risk premiums in the Gulf and Red Sea oil routes.
Societe Generale assesses that the risk of additional disruptions to the Bab el-Mandeb—a vital waterway connecting the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea—could push prices higher if the escalation continues, as the market will add a risk premium to shipping costs and the availability of physical barrels.
Causes: Iran's escalating war and widespread attacks on regional energy routes/infrastructure, coupled with Trump's rhetoric about "taking the oil," which has increased the perception of supply risk.
Impact: Oil risk premiums remain high, volatility increases, and energy-based inflationary pressures have the potential to shift global interest rate expectations toward tighter levels. (yds)
Source: Newsmaker.id
