Brent Weakens from Peak, But Energy Risks Aren't Over
Brent oil prices remain at high levels, with Brent at 109.07 on the BlackBull Markets feed on TradingView, after a sharp surge due to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. This movement indicates the market is beginning to take profits and is testing whether the price surge is supported by real physical supply disruptions or is driven more by short-term risk premiums.
Reuters reported that Brent briefly reached an intraday peak of around US$112.86/barrel after Iran attacked energy facilities in the Gulf region, sparking concerns about supply and logistics disruptions. In this phase, oil prices are typically highly headline-driven: they surge when there is a new escalation, then correct as the market awaits confirmation of the production/export impact.
For investors, the focus has now shifted from the headlines to physical supply indicators: whether there are prolonged disruptions to infrastructure, whether shipping flows are disrupted, and whether export capacity is actually being cut. If supply risks persist, risk premiums tend to persist and volatility remains high, despite intraday corrections.
Impact on the USD and Gold
USD: High oil prices mitigate the risk of energy inflation and encourage a more defensive market stance. This typically supports the dollar through a combination of risk-off and expectations of tighter/longer interest rates.
Gold: Geopolitical tensions can maintain safe-haven demand, but gold rallies are often restrained if the USD and yields also strengthen due to concerns about energy inflation.
What to watch (24–72 hours)
Are attacks continuing and are output/exports truly disrupted (not just headlines).
Developments in shipping lane security and further risks in the Gulf region.
Policy responses and signals of supply stabilization (volume/timing details), as well as the reaction of yields and the DXY, will determine the impact on the USD and gold.(CP)
Source: Newsmaker.id
