Oil Weakens, But Markets Dare Not Short
Oil prices fell slightly on Friday after a three-day rally, as risk-off sentiment spread across global markets. Brent fell back below/around US$70 per barrel, while WTI weakened to the US$64 area.
Pressure came from two directions: Asian markets weakened and the US dollar strengthened, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers outside the US. Nevertheless, Brent was still headed for its biggest monthly gain since 2022, as the market priced in a "risk premium" related to Iran; Citi estimated a Brent risk premium of around US$7–US$10 per barrel.
The market's primary focus was on potential supply disruptions: if tensions escalated, the question would be not only about Iranian export flows, but also shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a vital route for oil and LNG tankers. Concerns were further heightened by reports that Iran warned of planned live-streamed military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday–Monday.
This weekend, the market also awaits the OPEC+ online meeting on supply policy for March, which is generally expected to hold off on major changes. So, even though prices are currently "hanging," traders remain vigilant: Iran headlines and OPEC+ signals could turn oil into a liar at any time. (Asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
