Gold Advances as Traders Weigh Fragile Ceasefire in Iran War
Gold rose for a third straight session as investors weighed the prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war, even as lingering tensions threatened to derail a fragile ceasefire.
Bullion traded around $4,770 an ounce, extending gains of about 1.5% over the prior two sessions. The U.S. and Iran prepared for peace talks in Pakistan, with the truce largely holding, though major sticking points — including Israel’s offensive in Lebanon and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — remain unresolved.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead the American delegation for discussions in Islamabad on Saturday, while Iranian officials were due to arrive in the Pakistani capital on Thursday. Both sides appeared to have paused strikes across the region after President Donald Trump announced a truce following nearly six weeks of fighting. Oil hovered above $95 a barrel, equities rebounded, and a gauge of the dollar moved lower.
“Gold is following headlines closely as geopolitical risks remain unresolved and the ceasefire looks fragile, keeping near-term volatility elevated,” said Ewa Manthey, a commodity strategist at ING Bank. She added that the longer-term outlook remains constructive, supported by sustained central-bank buying, reserve diversification, and the likelihood that real rates will not remain restrictive indefinitely.
Now in its second month, the war has pushed energy prices higher and lifted inflation risks, increasing the odds that central banks delay rate cuts or even consider hikes — a headwind for non-yielding gold. At the same time, a prolonged conflict could weigh on growth and the labor market, potentially arguing for lower rates. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s March 17–18 meeting, released Wednesday, showed policymakers grappling with these sharply different scenarios for the U.S. economy.
Data released Thursday showed the U.S. economy expanded more slowly than previously estimated in the final months of 2025, while consumer spending barely rose in February amid persistent inflation that could accelerate due to the war. The core personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation — rose 0.4% from January and was up 3% from a year earlier. While the report does not reflect the most recent jump in energy prices, markets are looking ahead to Friday’s CPI release for signs of the pass-through.
Since the war began nearly six weeks ago, gold has largely traded in tandem with equities, with its traditional haven appeal muted at times by investors’ need to liquidate positions to cover losses elsewhere. Standard Chartered analysts said gold’s role as a liquidity source — rather than a pure diversifier or haven — remains prominent, leaving the near-term recovery fragile, though they see a more supportive footing in the physical market.
Spot gold was up 1.3% at $4,780.57 an ounce as of 3:07 p.m. in New York. Silver rose 2.6% to $76.02 an ounce. Platinum climbed, while palladium slipped. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2% after ending the prior session down 0.8%.
Source : Newsmaker.id
