Geopolitical Turnaround: Iran Risks Abruptly Fade
Iran appears to be temporarily avoiding a US attack, after US President Donald Trump signaled a "step back" from threatening military action over the crackdown on protesters. At the same time, Tehran is trying to defuse international pressure by asserting there are no plans for mass executions.
Trump said on Wednesday that he had received reports that violence in Iran was easing and that he would be "very disappointed" if the crackdown escalated. This contrasts sharply with earlier in the week, when Trump openly encouraged Iranians to remain on the streets and implied stronger support for the protest movement.
The change in tone from Washington was immediately felt in the market. Oil prices fell for the first time in six days, as the market mitigated concerns about supply disruptions from Iran and the Gulf states. Brent prices recorded a sharp correction after rallying over the past week, supported by a "geopolitical premium."
On the mobility front, flight tracking data showed air traffic resuming over Iran after a temporary shutdown. Local aviation authorities also stated that inbound and outbound flights had resumed, signaling that the most tense phase had eased—at least for now.
Hours earlier, the situation had been trending toward a more dangerous scenario. Iran closed its airspace following reports of adjustments to US personnel deployments in the region, while several countries took precautionary measures, including plans to tighten diplomatic operations. Although tensions have eased slightly, the risk of escalation remains and could resurface at any time.
The wave of protests in Iran itself has reportedly begun to decrease in intensity compared to last week, when hundreds of thousands of people protested the regime of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in various cities. The Iranian government insists it has regained control and blames external interference for the unrest.
However, human rights groups continue to report high death tolls and detentions, amid limited information due to the ongoing internet blackout in many regions. The greatest concern for the international community is the potential for mass executions of protesters.
Amid this pressure, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi appeared in US media and firmly rejected the issue of executions. He stated that hangings would not be carried out, emphasizing that diplomacy is preferable to war and warning Washington not to repeat the steps that led to the previous escalation.
Relations between Iran and the US remain fragile. Nuclear talks, mediated by Oman in June, abruptly halted following a military escalation in the region, and the situation has been further complicated by Iran's restrictions on access to international nuclear inspections. Meanwhile, reports of mass detentions continue to emerge, while a court ruling overturning the death sentence of one of the suspected protesters signals that the execution issue is a major pressure point being monitored globally.
Source: Newsmaker.id
