Brent Gasps Up: Is This Just the Beginning?
The oil market is entering an extreme phase driven by headlines. Brent's recent surge of +13% to above US$82/barrel has market participants starting to price in the risk of longer supply disruptions, particularly as tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has virtually stalled. Although Iran says the waterway remains open, reports of attacks on several tankers and the status of a "maritime warning zone" have prompted shipowners to hold vessels, a risky move given that approximately one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies typically pass through that channel.
In terms of projections, Citigroup raised its short-term Brent target by +US$15 to US$85, with a range of US$80–90 for this week as long as risks to energy infrastructure and disruptions to the Hormuz Strait remain high. Their base case scenario: the conflict ends within 1–2 weeks if there is a change in Iranian leadership or the US opts for de-escalation; However, if regional oil infrastructure is seriously affected, Citi sees the potential for a price move to US$120/barrel (approximately 20% probability). (asd)
Oil price at the time of this analysis was $76.72
- Buy if the price moves below $77.25
- Sell if the price moves below $76.12
Resistance 2: $77.82
Resistance 1: $77.50
Support 1: $76.00
Support 2: $75.68
Disclaimer:
This article is analytical in nature and is not a definitive reference. Please consider the influence of fundamental and technical developments on trading before making any investment decisions.
Source: Newsmaker.id
